Today, on Fareed Zakaria GPS, one of the guests was O'Neill. He was a treasury secretary during the Bush (2001-????) years.
O'Neill
laid the blame for the housing crash on home loans with little or
nothing down. According to him, the crash would not have happened if all
home loans had required 20% down.
This seems silly to me. I
saw many loans issued that only made sense if you assumed that the value
of the house would go up, and then require you to sell or refinance to
pay off the loan -- in other words, the loan assumed that the house
would pay for itself. Loans that had a low interest rate during the
first few years (5 to 7), and then either a large interest increase, or a
balloon payment. Loans where your interest rate was higher than your
payments (so your balance would increase; in theory, your house value
would go up faster).
Why is this bad? If you require that a loan
is only issued if it is likely to be paid off, then a high house price
will not sell -- no one that wants it can afford the loan. If a house is
priced so high that the loan is not likely to be paid off, and
therefore cannot be issued, then the house needs to come down in price.
That's
how a market makes sense. When prices go up, up, up, people stop
buying, and the prices have to come back down. That's functional.
Instead,
we had a market where prices went up, up, up, and bankers proceeded to
make loans on the assumption that not only would they continue to go up,
up, up, but someone else later would buy a loan thinking that it would
continue to go up, up up.
Blaming the people who wanted a house loan with little or no down is crazy.
Blame the lenders who decided to issue loans that could only be repaid if the house was sold at a large profit.
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Sunday, August 8, 2010
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